Michael Yon, formerly of Special Forces, has been reporting independently from Iraq for some time, one of the few U.S. civilian sources outside the Green Zone. (His book, Moment of Truth in Iraq, is considered to be one of the most accurate depictions of the war.)
Yon's latest assessment is that, barring some major setback, the Iraqis are winning. The Iraqi military should be able to handle most challenges on their own by year's end, although we will be need to be there in some capacity to backstop them. The war in Afghanistan is looking much bleaker, although his sources tell him that, with the right strategy, it too can be turned around. See his blog for a chart showing the decrease in levels of violence.