Georgia on my mind

Tonight's news reported that Georgia may be cut in half by Russian troops soon, if it hasn't already happened. Somehow, I have a sense of deja-vu.

A series of bombings in Russia in 1999 allegedly carried out by Chechen separatists subsequently constituted a major pretext for Russia to start the second Chechen war - and to propel upwards the career of then Prime Minister Putin. However, credible reports state that the bombings were most likely performed by Russian FSB operatives (the successor to the KGB).

This time, it was Georgia that invaded South Ossetia (history will tell what provocations pushed it to do so). The Russians then returned the favor, in spades. If the goal had been merely to keep the Georgians out of South Ossetia, the Russians would presumably have halted at the border. They did not.

Ukraine, which can read the tea leaves, told Russia that any of its ships leaving Ukrainian ports to shell Georgia would not be allowed to return. Ukraine has at various times expressed a desire to join NATO. As it was most likely Georgia's repeated calls for NATO membership that most angered the Russians, the Ukrainian government probably figures it had better act decisively now or lose the opportunity to act at all.

Meanwhile, the United States has narrowly dodged a bullet. Since Georgia is not a NATO member, we have no treaty obligation to defend it. The United States has enthusiastically supported enlarging NATO, but I doubt that much serious work has been done to figure out how to defend the new NATO members. I suppose that work will begin in earnest now.