Iran's strategy

Iran is well-known as the power behind both Hezbollah and Hamas. During the 2006 war it helped Hezbollah, leaving analysts to wonder what will it do for Hamas, particularly if the Israelis inflict real damage on that organization. Commentators Caroline Glick and Walid Phares suggest several possible Iranian strategies.

Glick argues that Iran, which incited the current conflict, may leave Hamas to its fate. Why? Either because the Iranian regime is too weak, due to low energy prices and internal dissent, to risk another expensive foreign war, or because it has already derived as much benefit as it needs from Hamas.

The second alternative is buttressed by a bipartisan French parliamentary report, derived from open sources, that argues that Iran will pass the line of no return in developing nuclear weapons this year. In that case, allowing Hamas to divert Israel and the United States is sufficient - there is no need for Hamas to win. (Thanks to Jewish World Review.)

Phares speculates that Iran may have hoped to rally public support against Israel now, in order to make it harder for Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. As an added benefit, if Israel bogs down in Gaza, President-elect Obama will have to start his Mideast policy on the defensive.