Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, gave a victory speech June 2 in which he openly stated his direct affiliation with Iran, and claimed to have defeated the democratic movement in Lebanon, the Lebanese government and the United States and its allies.
According to analyst Walid Phares, Nasrallah's speech nevertheless hinted at several weaknesses. While he has for now neutralized the Lebanese army by making its commander President of Lebanon, he did not fare so well in actual military confrontations, even with local Druze peasants. Although Phares thinks Hezbollah can influence perhaps 25% of the Lebanese army, that still leaves 75% who oppose him. Nasrallah won this latest round with the help of Qatar, which blocked Security Council action that would have supported the Lebanese government, then brokered the current arrangement - now being sold as "peace on our time" to the Western press.
Conventional wisdom has long said that Washington cannot focus on more than one crisis at a time. Perhaps the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have used up all the circuits, but I hope not. Allowing Hezbollah to take over Lebanon is not at all in our interests, let alone in the interests of the Middle East. For Phares' analysis, click here.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment