Iran and the price of oil

The sharp drop in oil prices (from $147 in July to the mid-$60s today, or a drop of more than 50%) may hurt Iran more than would sanctions.

A MEMRI analysis reports that, according to the IMF, the Iranians may need a minimum oil price of $95 per barrel to balance their national budget. While Iran has a stabilization fund to protect against a rainy day, President Ahmedinejad has apparently drawn it down for various reasons to a level of approximately $7 billion. That would just about cover gasoline imports (Iran produces a lot of oil but lacks refineries to produce gasoline) for a year at most.

Ahmedinejad's revenue-raising options are limited. His attempt to get OPEC to reduce production failed to meet his expectations, while domestic fiscal measures are risky. His recent attempt to increase domestic taxes met with such resistance that it had to be abandoned. Other alternatives, such as restricting consumer imports, aren't likely to be popular.

Meanwhile, the Saudis can balance their budget at around $50 per barrel. In addition, they have much heftier funds in reserve. Other Gulf States can live with even lower oil prices. Thus, they are well positioned to push back Iranian influence in the region.

The cloud that accompanies this silver lining: the report cautions that Iranians could seek to provoke a regional crisis as a means of jacking up oil prices.

Obama and apostasy

This is a theoretical question, but it's one that keeps nagging me: Obama was definitely born a Muslim, and definitely converted to Christianity as an adult. Americans, myself included, consider him to be a Christian - but what do Muslims think he is?

In principle the punishment for apostasy, for leaving Islam, is death. This is hardly ancient history. Jihad Watch reports here the recent beheading in Somalia of a Muslim apostate. If Obama is elected President, he'll have a very fine security detail, so the risk of beheading is presumably nil. But will Muslim leaders bring up his apostasy if Obama backs some policy that they don't like?

To swim or not to swim

The Swiss Federal Court has ruled against Muslims plaintiffs who argued that their children should be allowed to attend swimming classes segregated by sex. In so doing, it cited the need for schools not to undermine efforts at integration. As Necla Kelek explains in her book, Die fremde Braut, swimming facilities are one of the battlegrounds for those seeking to carve out Muslim-only or Muslim-dominated areas. (Thanks to Jihad Watch.)

Daniel Pipes summarizes recent similar cases in the United States and Europe. He saves the best for last: a father and son who were excluded from a pool in East London during a male-only session because they were not Muslims. The authorities subsequently apologized, saying they had no right to make assumptions about anyone's religion, and assuring them they wouldn't be denied admitance simply on the basis of a non-Muslim appearance. Guess that solved that problem!

Truth in textbooks

If you're wondering about just what American textbooks say about Judaism, Christianity and Islam, here are a couple of useful links.

The first one is to a study by Gary Tobin and Dennis Ybarra that draws some disturbing conclusions from a survey of the 28 most widely used textbooks in U.S. public schools. Among their findings: "The textbooks tend to be critical of Jews and Israel, and sometimes disrespectful of Christianity. Moreover textbooks tend to glorify Islam rather than represent it in an objective way... the Muslim groups who insisted that their religion be presented in an uncritical fashion seem to have their narrative included without modification."

Robert Spencer provides a specific example of such a presentation in a recent blog entry. Here, Christians are described as those who believe in Jesus, while the Koran is simply described as the word of Allah. This may not seem, in and of itself, to be such a big thing. But when it's linked to other themes, such as denying any historical link between Jews and Israel, you have to wonder what's going on.

Tobin and Ybarra don't argue that the textbook publishers are even aware of these problems. Rather, they describe shortcomings in how textbooks are produced that leave them vulnerable to distortions.

Technical challenges

This has nothing at all to do with foreign policy, but it may amuse
you to watch this video, especially if you're trying to wrestle with
your electronic gadgets. (Thanks to Gail)

Traveling

Sorry for the silence - I'm away from home and it's harder to blog.
(Whine, excuses, excuses...)

Hooray

Islamist Watch reports that the British Columbia human rights court has dismissed the case against Canadian news magazine Maclean's for publishing an excerpt from the book America Alone by Mark Steyn. This is the third time that such charges have been brought and dismissed by various human rights courts.

While that is good news, Steyn notes that the court may have been influenced by the fact that he is well-known. Also, had Maclean's lost the case, according to columnist Andrew Coyne, they could have appealed it to a regular court, and sought to change the law.

It is no victory to be told by a shadowy government agency that you will be permitted to publish. This ruling … also prevents Maclean's from appealing the tribunal's decision to an actual court, wherein it might have had the relevant section of the B.C. human rights laws thrown out on constitutional grounds.

(My comment) This may not yet be the end of the story; the Canadian Islamic Congress, which lodged the complaint, may appeal the decision.